← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Fri, Sep 22, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 69% | 72% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.25 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 12% | 11% | 8.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −1.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| VfB Stuttgart −1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 65% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 35% | 2.58 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Luca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt |
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Dan-Axel Zagadou · Darmstadt |
| 22' | ⚽ | Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 32' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fabian Holland · Darmstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Clemens Riedel · Darmstadt |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
| 77' | 🟨 | Filip Stojilković · Darmstadt |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fabian Schnellhardt · Darmstadt |
| 89' | 🟨 | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 11 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stuttgart Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 174.00 | 813.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1629.99 | 1523.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.34 | -43.57 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 5.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | -2.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.45 | — |
| state index | 1.09 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 2.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.10 |