← Bundesliga 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 26, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 48% | 49% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.42 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 24% | 28% | 4.17 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Darmstadt +0.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin +0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 51% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 49% | 2.24 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |