β Bundesliga 2023-24 Β· Sun, Aug 20, 03:30 PM UTC Β· ref: H. Osmers
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 65% | 70% | 1.49 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 15% | 10% | 6.68 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Darmstadt β1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt β1.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 61% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 39% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand