← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Cortus
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 77% | 72% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 7.01 | value: +7% |
| Hertha win | 9% | 12% | 11.14 | value: +39% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −1.75 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Hertha −1.75 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 69% | 1.31 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 31% | 3.75 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Jakub Kamiński · Wolfsburg |
| 44' | 🟨 | Suat Serdar · Hertha |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · Hertha |
| 48' | 🟨 | Marvin Plattenhardt · Hertha |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Maza · Hertha |
| 67' | 🟨 | Sebastiaan Bornauw · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Marco Richter · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Paul Boëtius · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | VOLKSWAGEN ARENA |
| coach days |
| 330.00 |
| 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1690.38 | 1488.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.25 | -15.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 49.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -1.43 |
| solidity v1 | -1.45 | -2.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.48 | 25.08 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 2.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 0.98 |