← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 62% | 70% | 1.57 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 18% | 13% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −1 | 53% | 1.87 |
| FC Schalke 04 −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 70% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Konrad Laimer · RB Leipzig |
| 19' | ⚽ | Christopher Nkunku · RB Leipzig |
| 20' | 🟨 | Cedric Brunner · FC Schalke 04 |
| 28' | ⚽ | Marcin Kamiński · FC Schalke 04 |
| 41' | 🟨 | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Willi Orbán · FC Schalke 04 |
| 63' | 🟨 | Sebastian Polter · FC Schalke 04 |
| 82' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christopher Nkunku · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christopher Nkunku · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 16 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 542.00 | 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1880.41 | 1614.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.07 | 16.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| league points | 63.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | -0.25 |
| solidity v1 | 1.14 | -2.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 26.95 |
| state index | 1.49 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 2.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 1.31 |