← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 56% | 50% | 1.71 | fair |
| Bochum win | 23% | 25% | 4.48 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.62 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bochum +0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 68% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟥 | Amine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 19' | ⚽ | Philipp Förster · Bochum |
| 21' | 🟨 | Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
| 28' | 🟨 | Philipp Förster · Bochum |
| 34' | ⚽ | Takuma Asano · Bochum |
| 63' | 🟨 | Edmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Florian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mitchel Bakker · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Moussa Diaby · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 84' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| 🟨 |
| Patrick Osterhage · Bochum |
| 86' | ⚽ | Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
| 89' | 🟨 | Simon Zoller · Bochum |
| 89' | 🟨 | Exequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 268.00 | 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1610.88 | 1826.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.34 | -36.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.40 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| league points | 32.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 0.84 |
| solidity v1 | -1.69 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.98 | 25.03 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.28 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.24 |