← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, May 21, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 74% | 64% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 21% | 6.50 | value: +38% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 11% | 15% | 10.21 | value: +50% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −1.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 69% | 62% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 38% | 3.20 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand