← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, May 21, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 37% | 34% | 2.67 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 35% | 41% | 2.78 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 58% | 1.83 | value: +6% |
| Under | 47% | 42% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Marcus Ingvartsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 41' | ⚽ | Wataru Endo · VfB Stuttgart |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 64' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 73' | 🟨 | Wataru Endo · VfB Stuttgart |
| 75' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 78' | ⚽ | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ludovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tanguy Coulibaly · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 870.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1733.08 | 1628.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.60 | 11.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| league points | 45.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 0.72 |
| solidity v1 | -1.36 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.40 | 25.49 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.50 |