← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, May 20, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 40% | 46% | 2.48 | value: +14% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 35% | 28% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 +0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 52% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 48% | 2.35 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04 |
| 6' | 🟨 | Djibril Sow · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 21' | ⚽ | Daichi Kamada · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 32' | 🟨 | Aurélio Buta · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 39' | 🟨 | Tom Krauß · FC Schalke 04 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Moritz Jenz · FC Schalke 04 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Randal Kolo Muani · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 59' | ⚽ | Tuta · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 85' | ⚽ | Sebastian Polter · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tuta |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 231.00 |
| 688.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1547.02 | 1676.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.63 | -20.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.58 |
| league points | 30.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -2.42 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 27.60 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.32 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.57 |