← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, May 20, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 42% | 40% | 2.31 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 30% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 49% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 51% | 2.08 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Munas Dabbur · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aissa Laïdouni · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 90' | ⚽ | Munas Dabbur · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 108.00 | 1784.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1643.63 | 1819.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.42 | -0.29 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 32.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | -0.74 |
| solidity v1 | -0.69 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.64 | 28.97 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.09 |