← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Fri, May 19, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 44% | 49% | 2.23 | value: +9% |
| Wolfsburg win | 31% | 22% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.79 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
| SC Freiburg −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 56% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 44% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jonas Wind · Wolfsburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
| 71' | ⚽ | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| coach days | 4187.00 | 322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1777.18 | 1776.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.84 | 23.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| league points | 56.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -0.06 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.01 | 25.50 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 2.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.73 |