← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Stieler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 49% | 51% | 1.98 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 27% | 24% | 3.69 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Wolfsburg −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 58% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 42% | 2.75 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Jakub Kamiński · Wolfsburg |
| 31' | 🟨 | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
| 49' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ihlas Bebou · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 75' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · Wolfsburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kevin Akpoguma · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Josuha Guilavogui · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | VOLKSWAGEN ARENA |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 316.00 | 101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1771.44 | 1648.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.67 | 16.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| league points | 46.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.68 |
| solidity v1 | -1.59 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.76 | 27.94 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.28 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 1.20 |