← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 46% | 49% | 2.11 | value: +3% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 28% | 23% | 3.53 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.77 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 54% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Daichi Kamada · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 22' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 30' | 🟨 | Tuta · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 38' | 🟨 | Andreas Hanche-Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Aurélio Buta · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 59' | ⚽ | Randal Kolo Muani · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 88' | 🟨 | Eniss Shabani · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 4 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 681.00 | 862.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1732.68 | 1748.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.19 | -14.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| league points | 43.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 28.17 |
| state index | -0.51 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.39 |