← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 43% | 47% | 2.32 | value: +8% |
| FC Augsburg win | 31% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bochum −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 48% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 52% | 2.20 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Christopher Antwi-Adjei · Bochum |
| 4' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Stafylidis · Bochum |
| 29' | ⚽ | Arne Maier · FC Augsburg |
| 32' | 🟨 | Maximilian Bauer · FC Augsburg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · Bochum |
| 62' | ⚽ | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 76' | 🟨 | Robert Gumny · FC Augsburg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kelvin Yeboah · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Riemann · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days | 254.00 | 316.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1601.52 | 1626.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.51 | -1.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 47.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 28.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -0.97 |
| solidity v1 | -2.15 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 30.22 | 25.35 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.42 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 0.75 |