← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 84% | 92% | 1.14 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 10% | 6% | 9.50 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 6% | 2% | 18.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München −2.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| FC Schalke 04 −2.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79% | 80% | 1.20 | fair |
| Under | 21% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Tom Krauß · FC Schalke 04 |
| 21' | ⚽ | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
| 28' | 🟨 | Cedric Brunner · FC Schalke 04 |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marius Bülter · FC Schalke 04 |
| 50' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
| 65' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
| 80' | ⚽ | Mathys Tel · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | ⚽ | Noussair Mazraoui · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 14 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 73.00 | 224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.34 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1981.55 | 1615.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.77 | 22.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 65.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.25 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 1.39 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 27.51 |
| state index | 1.38 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.24 | 1.61 |