← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, May 6, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Aytekin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 40% | 46% | 2.42 | value: +11% |
| Hertha win | 32% | 26% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 49% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Filip Uremović · Hertha |
| 19' | 🟨 | Florian Niederlechner · Hertha |
| 29' | ⚽ | Marc-Oliver Kempf · Hertha |
| 38' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · Hertha |
| 63' | 🟨 | Wataru Endo · VfB Stuttgart |
| 66' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Christensen · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
| coach days | 35.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1562.17 | 1634.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.24 | 23.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| league points | 22.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | 0.63 |
| solidity v1 | -1.87 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 25.38 |
| state index | -0.84 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.84 |