← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Fri, May 5, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 57% | 59% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.19 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 19% | 19% | 5.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| FC Schalke 04 −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 64% | 1.71 | value: +10% |
| Under | 43% | 36% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Marius Bülter · FC Schalke 04 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ludovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 60' | ⚽ | Tom Krauß · FC Schalke 04 |
| 70' | ⚽ | Aarón Martín · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominick Drexler · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Marius Bülter · FC Schalke 04 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 854.00 | 216.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1764.04 | 1600.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.80 | -3.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -1.00 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| league points | 45.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 5.13 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.22 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.50 | 28.48 |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.58 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.19 |