← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Fri, May 5, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 60% | 53% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.32 | value: +6% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 17% | 23% | 5.80 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 60% | 1.74 | value: +4% |
| Under | 44% | 40% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · 1. FC Köln |
| 28' | ⚽ | Amine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 36' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mathias Olesen · 1. FC Köln |
| 71' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · 1. FC Köln |
| 80' | 🟨 | Amine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Linton Maina · 1. FC Köln |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln |
| 83' | 🟨 | Benno Schmitz · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 216.00 | 673.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1863.11 | 1678.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.42 | 25.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.62 |
| league points | 48.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.45 | 26.94 |
| state index | 1.30 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.48 |