← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 29, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 56% | 52% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.33 | value: +12% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 21% | 22% | 4.82 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −0.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 43% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟨 | Julian Weigl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 61' | 🟨 | Stefan Lainer · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 77' | 🟨 | Dan-Axel Zagadou · VfB Stuttgart |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Julian Weigl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 82' | 🟥 | Ko Itakura · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Tanguy Coulibaly · VfB Stuttgart |
| 85' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz-Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 28.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1623.56 | 1715.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.48 | 5.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 25.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 26.91 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.53 |