← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 29, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 61% | 62% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 18% | 18% | 5.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 57% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 43% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Renato Veiga · FC Augsburg |
| 25' | ⚽ (og) | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Junior Dina Ebimbe · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tuta · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| coach days |
| 667.00 |
| 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1684.22 | 1531.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.58 | -16.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -1.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 47.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| league points | 42.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | -1.26 |
| solidity v1 | -0.43 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.64 | — |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 0.64 |