← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 23, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 36% | 39% | 2.72 | value: +6% |
| RB Leipzig win | 36% | 35% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 61% | 1.85 | value: +13% |
| Under | 47% | 39% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Adam Hložek · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dominik Szoboszlai · RB Leipzig |
| 70' | 🟨 | Piero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Mohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig |
| 71' | 🟨 | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 75' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · RB Leipzig |
| 85' | 🟨 | Dominik Szoboszlai · RB Leipzig |
| 85' | 🟥 | Dominik Szoboszlai · RB Leipzig |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Nadiem Amiri · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 87' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 26 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 89' | 🟨 | Robert Andrich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 204.00 | 508.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1849.95 | 1853.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.23 | -26.31 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| league points | 44.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 2.85 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | 1.54 |
| solidity v1 | 1.05 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 24.74 | 26.72 |
| state index | 1.47 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 1.80 |