← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Braun
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 41% | 40% | 2.35 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 31% | 35% | 3.16 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.57 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 52% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 26' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · 1. FC Köln |
| 29' | 🟨 | John Brooks · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 29' | 🟨 | Marvin Schwäbe · 1. FC Köln |
| 39' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| coach days |
| 80.00 |
| 660.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1577.66 | 1601.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.72 | -11.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | -0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.68 | 25.50 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.20 |