← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 44% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Bochum win | 30% | 33% | 3.28 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Wolfsburg +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 51% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 21' | 🟨 | Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
| 21' | ⚽ | Jakub Kamiński · Wolfsburg |
| 24' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 31' | 🟨 | Erhan Mašović · Bochum |
| 33' | ⚽ | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Christopher Antwi-Adjei · Bochum |
| 56' | ⚽ | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Moritz Broschinski · Bochum |
| 77' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · Wolfsburg |
| 80' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 23 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| 🟨 |
| Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 233.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1619.22 | 1753.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.99 | -12.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 27.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 0.65 |
| solidity v1 | -1.00 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.80 | 25.36 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.57 |