← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 21, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 44% | 43% | 2.22 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 30% | 26% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.67 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Augsburg +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 56% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Dion Drena Beljo · FC Augsburg |
| 20' | 🟨 | Hiroki Itō · VfB Stuttgart |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tanguy Coulibaly · VfB Stuttgart |
| 62' | 🟨 | Maximilian Bauer · FC Augsburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Josha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart |
| 78' | 🟨 | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · FC Augsburg |
| 78' | ⚽ | Wataru Endo · VfB Stuttgart |
| 85' | 🟨 | Felix Uduokhai · FC Augsburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Julian Baumgartlinger · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arne Maier · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 294.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1608.04 | 1622.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.66 | 10.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | — |
| league points | 29.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | 0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -1.97 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 25.49 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.22 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.42 |