← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 16, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 36% | 39% | 2.77 | value: +8% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 35% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
| SV Werder Bremen +0 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 50% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 50% | 2.19 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Christian Groß · SV Werder Bremen |
| 13' | 🟨 | Ritsu Doan · SC Freiburg |
| 31' | 🟨 | Maximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg |
| 46' | ⚽ | Maximilian Philipp · SV Werder Bremen |
| 66' | ⚽ | Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg |
| 71' | ⚽ | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 531.00 | 4154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1637.77 | 1775.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.23 | -21.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.80 |
| league points | 32.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -1.04 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.51 | 28.30 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.03 |