← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Cortus
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 35% | 38% | 2.77 | value: +4% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 35% | 35% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0 | 50% | 1.94 |
| 1. FC Köln +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 50% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 50% | 2.22 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 17' | ⚽ | Ludovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ludovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 51' | ⚽ | Dejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln |
| 86' | 🟨 | Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 653.00 | 834.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1669.85 | 1757.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.95 | 24.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 31.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.47 |