← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 14, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 42% | 43% | 2.40 | value: +4% |
| Hertha win | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.36 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Schalke 04 −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Tim Skarke · FC Schalke 04 |
| 13' | ⚽ | Marius Bülter · FC Schalke 04 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kevin-Prince Boateng · Hertha |
| 45' | ⚽ | Stevan Jovetić · Hertha |
| 48' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jessic Ngankam · Hertha |
| 78' | ⚽ | Marius Bülter · FC Schalke 04 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Marco Richter · Hertha |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tom Krauß · FC Schalke 04 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Moritz Jenz · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Filip Uremović · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcin Kamiński · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 195.00 | 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1582.51 | 1594.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.65 | -16.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.59 |
| league points | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 5.04 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.99 |
| solidity v1 | -0.96 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.61 | 27.02 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.24 |