← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 9, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 40% | 44% | 2.42 | value: +7% |
| Bochum win | 31% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 47% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 54% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 46% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 14' | ⚽ | Hiroki Itō · VfB Stuttgart |
| 36' | 🟨 | Christopher Antwi-Adjei · Bochum |
| 37' | 🟨 | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Kevin Stöger · Bochum |
| 60' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart |
| 63' | ⚽ | Josha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart |
| 85' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Riemann · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabian Bredlow · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| 🟨 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 220.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1625.03 | 1604.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.30 | -20.03 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 26.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 8.88 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -0.70 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.49 | 25.16 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.10 |