← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 2, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 44% | 37% | 2.18 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 29% | 34% | 3.35 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.76 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 52% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 48% | 2.35 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |