← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 64% | 73% | 1.54 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 17% | 12% | 5.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Bayern München −1.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 65% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | Gregor Kobel · FC Bayern München |
| 18' | ⚽ | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
| 23' | ⚽ | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
| 50' | ⚽ | Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München |
| 64' | 🟨 | Dayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 31.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1992.71 | 1894.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.92 | 18.04 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | 1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.85 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 52.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 2.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | 1.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.52 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 27.16 |
| state index | 1.34 | 1.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.02 | 2.25 |