← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 61% | 62% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.43 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 17% | 17% | 5.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Wolfsburg −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (og) | Maximilian Arnold · FC Augsburg |
| 32' | ⚽ | Mergim Berisha · FC Augsburg |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 83' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · Wolfsburg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mads Pedersen · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Paredes · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arne Maier · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Felix Nmecha · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | VOLKSWAGEN ARENA |
| coach days |
| 274.00 |
| 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1698.86 | 1546.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.13 | 0.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| league points | 38.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -0.95 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.17 | — |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.11 |