← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 63% | 66% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.54 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 15% | 12% | 6.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 60% | 1.87 | value: +13% |
| Under | 47% | 40% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Marcus Ingvartsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ludovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Anthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Marcus Ingvartsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 65' | 🟨 | Dani Olmo · RB Leipzig |
| 65' | 🟨 | Andreas Hanche-Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 67' | ⚽ | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days |
| 486.00 |
| 820.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1798.06 | 1660.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.46 | 33.25 |
| eye test v1 | 1.36 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 45.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.63 | -0.86 |
| solidity v1 | 0.92 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 27.13 |
| state index | 1.15 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.27 | 1.26 |