β Bundesliga 2022-23 Β· Fri, Mar 31, 06:30 PM UTC Β· ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 62% | 64% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.37 | fair |
| Bochum win | 15% | 14% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt β1 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Bochum β1 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | π¨ | Djibril Sow Β· Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 6' | π¨ | Anthony Losilla Β· Bochum |
| 13' | β½ | Takuma Asano Β· Bochum |
| 21' | π¨ | Ivan Ordets Β· Bochum |
| 22' | β½ (pen) | Randal Kolo Muani Β· Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 71' | π¨ | Rafael BorrΓ© Β· Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 81' | π¨ | Kristijan JakiΔ Β· Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 15 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| coach days |
| 638.00 |
| 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1713.24 | 1551.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.33 | -4.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 40.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 12.17 | 13.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -1.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.19 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.71 | β |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.13 |