← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 19, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 47% | 48% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 25% | 23% | 4.03 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg −0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 50% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 50% | 2.22 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Michael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg |
| 35' | 🟨 | Matthias Ginter · SC Freiburg |
| 51' | 🟨 | Manuel Gulde · SC Freiburg |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · SC Freiburg |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ludovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 88' | 🟨 | Anthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| coach days |
| 807.00 |
| 4126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1660.87 | 1715.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.37 | -19.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 36.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 8.17 | 3.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.13 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.13 | — |
| state index | 1.06 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 0.51 |