← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 18, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 49% | 45% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.76 | value: +14% |
| Hertha win | 24% | 24% | 4.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 27' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · Hertha |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ihlas Bebou · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 71' | 🟥 | Munas Dabbur · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jessic Ngankam · Hertha |
| 85' | 🟨 | Maximilian Mittelstädt · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ | Stevan Jovetić · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 45.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1607.62 | 1605.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.09 | 26.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| league points | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -1.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.57 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 26.64 |
| state index | -0.99 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -1.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.40 |