← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 18, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 40% | 43% | 2.48 | value: +6% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 32% | 30% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| FC Augsburg −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 52% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Éder Balanta · FC Schalke 04 |
| 12' | 🟨 | Alex Král · FC Schalke 04 |
| 51' | ⚽ | Arne Maier · FC Augsburg |
| 53' | 🟥 | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
| 62' | 🟨 | Rubén Vargas · FC Augsburg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Moritz Jenz · FC Schalke 04 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rafał Gikiewicz · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Irvin Cardona · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Frey · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Marius Bülter · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 260.00 | 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1624.47 | 1601.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.11 | 46.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.85 |
| league points | 27.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | -1.32 |
| solidity v1 | -0.96 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 27.25 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.12 |