← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 39% | 37% | 2.47 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 33% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 54% | 1.92 | value: +3% |
| Under | 49% | 46% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Omar Marmoush · Wolfsburg |
| 22' | ⚽ | Randal Kolo Muani · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 26' | ⚽ | Evan Ndicka · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 43' | ⚽ | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mario Götze · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 48' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Wolfsburg |
| 58' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rode · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 84' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Paulo Otávio · Wolfsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kristijan Jakić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | VOLKSWAGEN ARENA |
| coach days |
| 247.00 |
| 612.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1691.58 | 1730.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.24 | -8.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 33.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.20 | 25.90 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.20 |