← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 4, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 43% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 31% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 53% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 47% | 2.21 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 5' | ⚽ | Dion Drena Beljo · FC Augsburg |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen |
| 28' | 🟨 | Renato Veiga · FC Augsburg |
| 46' | ⚽ | Arne Maier · FC Augsburg |
| 60' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Christian Groß · SV Werder Bremen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mads Pedersen · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days |
| 246.00 |
| 488.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1540.61 | 1595.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.95 | 24.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| league points | 24.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 0.95 |