← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 11, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 46% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 26% | 26% | 3.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg −0.25 | 54% | 1.85 |
| VfB Stuttgart −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 50% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 50% | 2.07 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 40' | 🟨 | Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart |
| 59' | 🟨 | Dan-Axel Zagadou · VfB Stuttgart |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 74' | 🟨 | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 85' | 🟨 | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hiroki Itō · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| coach days | 4090.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1792.19 | 1608.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.48 | -22.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| league points | 34.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 26.12 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.44 |