← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 62% | 65% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.69 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 17% | 17% | 5.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München +1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Wolfsburg +1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 64% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 36% | 2.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | VOLKSWAGEN ARENA |
| 73' |
| ⚽ |
| Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 80' | ⚽ | Mattias Svanberg · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastiaan Bornauw · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathys Tel · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paul Wanner · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 219.00 | 584.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1779.71 | 1998.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.01 | -10.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.02 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.80 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 67.00 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 2.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.40 | 26.57 |
| state index | 1.47 | 1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 1.20 |