← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 4, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 62% | 63% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.34 | fair |
| Hertha win | 15% | 15% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt −1 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Hertha −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Florian Niederlechner · Hertha |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Randal Kolo Muani · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 28' | ⚽ | Randal Kolo Muani · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 57' | 🟨 | Maximilian Mittelstädt · Hertha |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tuta · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aurélio Buta · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 583.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1817.02 | 1584.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.30 | -27.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.52 |
| league points | 32.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.98 | 25.42 |
| state index | 0.93 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |