← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 4, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 37% | 42% | 2.60 | value: +8% |
| Bochum win | 35% | 27% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.48 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Bochum +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 43% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 57% | 2.01 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 30' | ⚽ | Philipp Förster · Bochum |
| 40' | ⚽ | Takuma Asano · Bochum |
| 49' | ⚽ | Christoph Baumgartner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 54' | 🟨 | Philipp Hofmann · Bochum |
| 56' | 🟨 | Christoph Baumgartner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 56' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rudy · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 59' | 🟨 | Philipp Förster · Bochum |
| 69' | ⚽ | Erhan Mašović · Bochum |
| 77' | ⚽ | Munas Dabbur · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| 83' |
| ⚽ |
| Moritz Broschinski · Bochum |
| 90' | 🟨 | Munas Dabbur · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 156.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1609.68 | 1658.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.44 | -48.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| league points | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 29.98 | 26.58 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.61 |