← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Jan 28, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 47% | 67% | 2.09 | value: +39% ⚠ |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 27% | 18% | 3.62 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 16% | 3.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Wolfsburg +0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 60% | 1.74 | value: +5% |
| Under | 44% | 40% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
| 77' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Paredes · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kevin Paredes · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 453.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1570.77 | 1716.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.94 | 85.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.82 |
| league points | 21.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.17 |
| state index | -0.88 | 1.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 0.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.46 | 3.01 |