← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Jan 28, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 53% | 57% | 1.84 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.81 | fair |
| Bochum win | 22% | 18% | 4.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 54% | 1.94 | value: +5% |
| Under | 50% | 46% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 17' | ⚽ | Silvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 28' | ⚽ | Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 57' | ⚽ | Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 70' | ⚽ | Pierre Kunde · Bochum |
| 72' | ⚽ | Erhan Mašović · Bochum |
| 81' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · Bochum |
| 87' | ⚽ | Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| coach days | 757.00 | 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1687.12 | 1621.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.92 | 27.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 29.68 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.23 |