← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Wed, Jan 25, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 37% | 43% | 2.62 | value: +13% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 32% | 31% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.21 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| SV Werder Bremen +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 54% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 46% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |