← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Jan 22, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 75% | 66% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 20% | 6.50 | value: +28% |
| FC Augsburg win | 9% | 14% | 10.50 | value: +45% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −1.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Augsburg −1.75 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 64% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 36% | 3.00 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · Borussia Dortmund |
| 40' | ⚽ | Arne Maier · FC Augsburg |
| 42' | ⚽ | Nico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mads Pedersen · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Irvin Cardona · FC Augsburg |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fredrik Jensen · FC Augsburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund |
| 76' | ⚽ | David Čolina · FC Augsburg |
| 78' | ⚽ | Giovanni Reyna · Borussia Dortmund |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 27 | Shots | 14 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | SIGNAL IDUNA PARK |
| 84' |
| 🟨 |
| Jude Bellingham · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arne Engels · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 205.00 | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1826.69 | 1617.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.19 | -18.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| league points | 25.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 60.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | -2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 26.63 |
| state index | 1.02 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |