← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 22, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 58% | 55% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.21 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 19% | 21% | 5.28 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg +1 | 54% | 1.82 |
| RB Leipzig +1 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 62% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 38% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | André Silva · RB Leipzig |
| 22' | 🟨 | Mergim Berisha · FC Augsburg |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Mergim Berisha · FC Augsburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · FC Augsburg |
| 60' | 🟨 | Carlos Gruezo · FC Augsburg |
| 64' | ⚽ | Rubén Vargas · FC Augsburg |
| 65' | 🟨 | Iago Borduchi · FC Augsburg |
| 65' | 🟨 | Iago Borduchi · FC Augsburg |
| 65' | 🟥 | Iago Borduchi · FC Augsburg |
| 72' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| ⚽ |
| André Silva · RB Leipzig |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 89' | ⚽ | Christopher Nkunku · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Hugo Novoa Ramos · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 113.00 | 325.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1557.77 | 1760.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.59 | 4.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | — |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.79 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.79 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.29 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |