← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Fri, Oct 21, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 46% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 27% | 26% | 3.63 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.62 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 51% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 49% | 2.13 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Mark Uth · 1. FC Köln |
| 10' | 🟨 | Luca Kilian · 1. FC Köln |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcus Ingvartsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 28' | 🟨 | Luca Kilian · 1. FC Köln |
| 28' | 🟥 | Luca Kilian · 1. FC Köln |
| 35' | ⚽ | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Anton Stach · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 50' | 🟨 | Nikola Soldo · 1. FC Köln |
| 72' | 🟨 | Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln |
| 73' | ⚽ | Aarón Martín |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | MEWA ARENA |
| 83' | ⚽ | Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 658.00 |
| 477.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1639.49 | 1639.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.57 | -22.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.48 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 25.50 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |