← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 9, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 46% | 46% | 2.12 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 28% | 25% | 3.47 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.79 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −0.5 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 38% | 2.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Lars Stindl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 10' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 27' | ⚽ | Marvin Friedrich · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ramy Bensebaini · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 45' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | 🟥 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Ramy Bensebaini · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 46' | ⚽ | Lars Stindl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ellyes Skhiri · 1. FC Köln |
| 76' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK |
| 83' | ⚽ | Denis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcus Thuram · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 100.00 |
| 465.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1671.07 | 1660.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.04 | -6.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.20 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 25.50 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |