← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 8, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 39% | 39% | 2.54 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 34% | 30% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.46 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| FC Augsburg +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 51% | 1.94 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 49% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
| 38' | 🟨 | Maximilian Bauer · FC Augsburg |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 40' | 🟨 | Carlos Gruezo · FC Augsburg |
| 40' | 🟨 | Paulo Otávio · Wolfsburg |
| 55' | ⚽ | Robert Gumny · FC Augsburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Iago Borduchi · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 99.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1564.50 | 1615.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.36 | -10.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.99 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.30 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.81 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.82 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |